Blog: Even In Victory, Congress Will Have A Huge Karnataka Problem

Blog: Even In Victory, Congress Will Have A Huge Karnataka Problem

Siddaramaiah, and DK Shivakumar – two names that are part and parcel of the Congress in Karnataka, one of the few states where the party still has a significant presence; two names that are mentioned more than ever in the run-up to the Karnataka Assembly elections, often in the context of which one of them would be Chief Minister if the Congress does manage to pull off the feat of forming the next government.

The two men are alike in that they have made no secret of their political ambition. But it is their differences that will decide who gets the position of Karnataka Chief Minister if it becomes open to the party.

They are both popular, powerful leaders with a strong support base, which is probably one of the reasons why the Congress has not come out with a clear choice for the Chief Ministerial candidate. They would not want to alienate either faction. Siddaramaiah has been Chief Minister for a full five-year term. Shivakumar hasn’t made it to that post yet.

At 75, Siddaramaiah is the veteran. He has made it clear that this will be his last election and that he would be retiring from politics after this. Will that work in his favour, in the sense that this would be his last chance to be Chief Minister, while Shivakumar still has opportunities ahead? Or would the party turn to the younger DK Shivakumar, who is 61, a man who has certainly stepped up to help the party over the years?

Shivakumar has, without a doubt, worked very hard for the party and has been their go-to troubleshooter for years. He was visible and busy as he tried his best to salvage the Congress-Janata Dal Secular coalition government, which collapsed in 2019 after 17 MLAs from the two parties moved across to the BJP. He flew to Mumbai in a bid to meet the defectors and get them to change their minds. He wasn’t allowed to meet them but occupied a lot of space on TV channels.

Shivakumar has also always been a Congressman, from the time of his first electoral victory in 1989. Siddaramaiah, on the other hand, was with the Janata Party, later the Janata Dal-Secular, until he was expelled in 2005 after falling out with HD Deve Gowda. For some, even after years, he is still the ‘outsider’ when it comes to the Congress, an import from another party.

But this history of friction with the JDS doesn’t mean that Shivakumar would be the preferred partner for that party should it become time for a coalition once again. Shivakumar is a Vokkaliga, a member of the powerful caste that constitutes the bulk of the JDS vote bank. And the JDS would not be thrilled to have another powerful Vokkaliga in the equation. Siddaramaiah, on the other hand, is a Kuruba.

Both men, like so many politicians in the state and the country, have close family members in politics too. Siddaramaiah’s son, Yathindra, is handing over his seat of Varuna for his father to contest from this time, returning a favour done by the father for the son in 2018. D K Shivakumar’s brother is the Congress’s only MP from Karnataka, having won from Bangalore Rural.

Both leaders are outspoken and have had their share of controversies. Siddaramaiah has had to extricate himself recently from a bit of a hole after talking about ‘a corrupt Lingayat CM’ – trying to explain that he was talking about the current chief minister, Basavaraj Bommai in particular and was not insulting the electorally important Lingayat community. The extremely wealthy D K Shivakumar is still facing several serious charges of corruption and spent time in Tihar Jail before being granted bail. Did it change him? He does seem to be just a little less exuberant than he was before his time in prison.

There was much speculation about the timing of the investigation and raids against Shivakumar. It just so happened to be at a time in 2017 when he was at one of those resorts famously used by political parties – responsible for the ‘guarding’ of Rajya Sabha MLAs from Gujarat ahead of Rajya Sabha polls in that state.

So, which one of these men would be the choice for chief minister if the Congress comes to power in the state? Shivakumar has said he would also be happy to serve under veteran Mallikarjun Kharge – a man who has more than once been tipped for the post. But given Kharge’s senior position at the Centre, it may be felt that he is beyond chief ministership now. It is speculated that Shivakumar raised Kharge’s name to try and ensure that Siddaramaiah would not be offered the post. Another senior Congress leader, MB Patil, a Lingayat, would also be happy to be considered. As would G Parameshwara.

But by and large, it is considered that the contest is between the Leader of the Opposition in the state, Siddaramaiah, and the state party president, DK Shivakumar. They both have that political X Factor, leadership quality, and political ambition. On one hand, the Congress would consider it fortunate that they have choices when it comes to picking a leader. On the other hand, it will be a hard choice to make.

The rivalry is real.

(Maya Sharma is a senior television journalist and writer based in Bengaluru.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.

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