NEW DELHI: 2022 was marked by political volatility in several countries in India’s neighbourhood. From governments being ousted ousted, a president having to flee the country and coalitions breaking up to a purported attempt on a former prime minister- the year gone by was indeed eventful.
All major political developments of the region are also viewed through the prism of the subtle India-China rivalry, that seldom finds an explicit mention, but appears omnipresent.
We take a look at India’s neighbourhood for the year that was, and how 2023 might unfold.
Pakistan
India’s western neighbour could not emerge from its state of political flux in 2022.
It did not end with the ouster of the Imran Khan government in April. Imran’s long march to shore up support, the purported attempt on his life and bickering over the appointment of a new army chief has kept the pot boiling in Pakistan.
The unikely alliance of the Bhuttos (PPP) and the Sharifs (PML-N), as well as Khan will get another shot at power when Pakistan goes to polls, probably in the later half of 2023.
But there could be many moves on the political chessboard before that.
Will the country’s election commission disqualify Khan from contesting elections? What course will the corruption cases against Khan, and members of the Sharif and Bhutto clan take? Will Nawaz Sharif return from exile to take another plunge into active politics? Will the army maintain its political neutrality, as promised by former chief Gen Bajwa?
The answers to these questions could be crucial in shaping Pakistan’s future political landscape.
There has also been an uptick in terrorist activities in the country, with the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan carrying out several attacks after a peace deal with the government fell through. The group seems to have been emboldened with their brethren across the border seizing power in Afghanistan. Balochistan continues to be restless, with pro-independence movements gaining momentum.
Add to this a crippling economy, high inflation and discontent brewing at home over rising prices- and 2023 could be just as challenging for the incumbent government in Islamabad.
Sri Lanka
The economic crisis of 2022 was perhaps the most major challenge Sri Lanka faced in its modern history.
Faulty policies and the Covid pandemic dealt a blow to the island nation’s economy, leading to acute shortage of essentials like food, fuel and medicines. Much of it has also been blamed on China-backed mega projects that drained Sri Lanka’s coffers, with little or no promise of reasonable returns.
The mass outrage saw the Rajapaksa brothers duo of President-PM deposed.
Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country in the face of a perceived security threat and resigned as president from abroad. dramatic scenes of the presidential palace being overrun spoke of the huge unpopularity of the ruling family.
Rajapaksa has since returned, but the family’s stranglehold on power has been considerably weakened.
The new government, cobbled up with Wickremesinghe as PM, was faced with the arduous challenge of steering the country out of an economic crisis and also ensuring a bailout package from the IMF.
With help from India in the form of material aid, credit lines and currency swap, Sri Lanka can hope of having left the worst behind.
It has also reached a preliminary deal with IMF for a nearly $3 billion loan to keep the economy from sinking further.
Nepal
The Himalayan country went through a phase of political turmoil towards the end of 2022. The November general elections threw up a hung parliament.
The coalition of Nepali Congress and Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) looked on course to provide a stable government. But it hit a roadblock over who gets to sit first in the PM’s chair, in an arrangement of rotational premiership.
Eventually, Pushpa Kamala dahal, better known as Prachanda, became PM with support of KP Oli, once his bete noire in Nepal politics.
A former minister was quick to clarify that Nepal will follow “balanced and trustworthy” ties with India, and contentious issues like border disputes will not be allowed to undermine ties.
He added that there’ll be no major shift in Nepal’s approach to both India and China- perhaps an effort to dispel Oli’s “pro-China” image.
Maldives
The scenic archipelago in the Indian Ocean will elect a new president in 2023. Although a regulation affair, the outcome will matter a lot in the regional geo-politics, and India will be watching keenly.
The 2018 elections delivered a decisive verdict for Maldivian Democratic Party candidate Ibrahim Mohamed Solih against his rival Abdulla Yameen of the Progressive Party of Maldives.
Yameen during his presidency (2013-18) tried to undermine his country’s traditional friendly ties with India, while allowing China to increase its footprint.
That damage to India-Maldives ties have been repaired to a large extent under Solih.
With a Maldives court sentencing Yameen to 11 years in jail for corruption and money laundering, it’s ‘advantage Solih’ to begin with.
The great regional ‘power game’
Nepal, Sri Lanka and Maldives are joint by one common thread- they are the centrepieces in the India-China rivalry to extend spheres of influence in South Asia.
After the strains in India’s ties with Nepal under KP Oli’s terms (2015-2016 and 2018-2021I, relations improved after Sher Bahadur Deuba became PM in 2021.
China considers Nepal a key partner in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and wants to invest in infrastructure as part of its grand plans to boost global trade. But India holds a geographical advantage, offering the land-locked country its only viable access to a warm water ports. It also has historical cultural relations with the Himalayan country. How New Delhi manages its ties with the new Prachanda-Oli coalition will be crucial for the course of the India-China power play in Nepal.
In Sri Lanka too, the pro-China Rajapaksa clan is on a backfoot after the mass uprising triggered by the economic crisis. Questioned are being raised about the China-backed mega projects, many approved by the Rajapaksa regime, that have drained Lanka’s coffers. A case in point- the Hambantota port, that has been leased to a Chinese company after Sri Lanka defaulted on debts.
India on the other hand, aided Sri Lanka with fuel, medicines and several lines of credit to tide over the economic crisis of 2022. India will need to play its diplomatic cards well to keep ahead of China in Sri Lanka and thr greater Indian Ocean region.
All major political developments of the region are also viewed through the prism of the subtle India-China rivalry, that seldom finds an explicit mention, but appears omnipresent.
We take a look at India’s neighbourhood for the year that was, and how 2023 might unfold.
Pakistan
India’s western neighbour could not emerge from its state of political flux in 2022.
It did not end with the ouster of the Imran Khan government in April. Imran’s long march to shore up support, the purported attempt on his life and bickering over the appointment of a new army chief has kept the pot boiling in Pakistan.
The unikely alliance of the Bhuttos (PPP) and the Sharifs (PML-N), as well as Khan will get another shot at power when Pakistan goes to polls, probably in the later half of 2023.
But there could be many moves on the political chessboard before that.
Will the country’s election commission disqualify Khan from contesting elections? What course will the corruption cases against Khan, and members of the Sharif and Bhutto clan take? Will Nawaz Sharif return from exile to take another plunge into active politics? Will the army maintain its political neutrality, as promised by former chief Gen Bajwa?
The answers to these questions could be crucial in shaping Pakistan’s future political landscape.
There has also been an uptick in terrorist activities in the country, with the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan carrying out several attacks after a peace deal with the government fell through. The group seems to have been emboldened with their brethren across the border seizing power in Afghanistan. Balochistan continues to be restless, with pro-independence movements gaining momentum.
Add to this a crippling economy, high inflation and discontent brewing at home over rising prices- and 2023 could be just as challenging for the incumbent government in Islamabad.
Sri Lanka
The economic crisis of 2022 was perhaps the most major challenge Sri Lanka faced in its modern history.
Faulty policies and the Covid pandemic dealt a blow to the island nation’s economy, leading to acute shortage of essentials like food, fuel and medicines. Much of it has also been blamed on China-backed mega projects that drained Sri Lanka’s coffers, with little or no promise of reasonable returns.
The mass outrage saw the Rajapaksa brothers duo of President-PM deposed.
Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country in the face of a perceived security threat and resigned as president from abroad. dramatic scenes of the presidential palace being overrun spoke of the huge unpopularity of the ruling family.
Rajapaksa has since returned, but the family’s stranglehold on power has been considerably weakened.
The new government, cobbled up with Wickremesinghe as PM, was faced with the arduous challenge of steering the country out of an economic crisis and also ensuring a bailout package from the IMF.
With help from India in the form of material aid, credit lines and currency swap, Sri Lanka can hope of having left the worst behind.
It has also reached a preliminary deal with IMF for a nearly $3 billion loan to keep the economy from sinking further.
Nepal
The Himalayan country went through a phase of political turmoil towards the end of 2022. The November general elections threw up a hung parliament.
The coalition of Nepali Congress and Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) looked on course to provide a stable government. But it hit a roadblock over who gets to sit first in the PM’s chair, in an arrangement of rotational premiership.
Eventually, Pushpa Kamala dahal, better known as Prachanda, became PM with support of KP Oli, once his bete noire in Nepal politics.
A former minister was quick to clarify that Nepal will follow “balanced and trustworthy” ties with India, and contentious issues like border disputes will not be allowed to undermine ties.
He added that there’ll be no major shift in Nepal’s approach to both India and China- perhaps an effort to dispel Oli’s “pro-China” image.
Maldives
The scenic archipelago in the Indian Ocean will elect a new president in 2023. Although a regulation affair, the outcome will matter a lot in the regional geo-politics, and India will be watching keenly.
The 2018 elections delivered a decisive verdict for Maldivian Democratic Party candidate Ibrahim Mohamed Solih against his rival Abdulla Yameen of the Progressive Party of Maldives.
Yameen during his presidency (2013-18) tried to undermine his country’s traditional friendly ties with India, while allowing China to increase its footprint.
That damage to India-Maldives ties have been repaired to a large extent under Solih.
With a Maldives court sentencing Yameen to 11 years in jail for corruption and money laundering, it’s ‘advantage Solih’ to begin with.
The great regional ‘power game’
Nepal, Sri Lanka and Maldives are joint by one common thread- they are the centrepieces in the India-China rivalry to extend spheres of influence in South Asia.
After the strains in India’s ties with Nepal under KP Oli’s terms (2015-2016 and 2018-2021I, relations improved after Sher Bahadur Deuba became PM in 2021.
China considers Nepal a key partner in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and wants to invest in infrastructure as part of its grand plans to boost global trade. But India holds a geographical advantage, offering the land-locked country its only viable access to a warm water ports. It also has historical cultural relations with the Himalayan country. How New Delhi manages its ties with the new Prachanda-Oli coalition will be crucial for the course of the India-China power play in Nepal.
In Sri Lanka too, the pro-China Rajapaksa clan is on a backfoot after the mass uprising triggered by the economic crisis. Questioned are being raised about the China-backed mega projects, many approved by the Rajapaksa regime, that have drained Lanka’s coffers. A case in point- the Hambantota port, that has been leased to a Chinese company after Sri Lanka defaulted on debts.
India on the other hand, aided Sri Lanka with fuel, medicines and several lines of credit to tide over the economic crisis of 2022. India will need to play its diplomatic cards well to keep ahead of China in Sri Lanka and thr greater Indian Ocean region.
