Drew Timme and the (#9) Gonzaga Bulldogs (12-3) will visit the San Francisco Dons (11-6) on Thursday night.
Drew Timme posted a 35-point, 10-rebound performance in a 111-88 home win over Pepperdine to help extend the Bulldogs’ winning streak to seven games. Six Bulldogs sat in double-figures with 2020 top prospect Julian Strawther just behind Timme with 22 points on 8-of-13 shooting.
Despite playing in the West Coast Conference, the Bulldogs have had one of the most demanding schedules this season, playing the likes of Michigan State, Texas, Kentucky, Purdue, Xavier, Baylor, and Alabama.
Gonzaga vs. San Francisco Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook
Since starting the season 7-1, San Francisco has been inconsistent, beating UNLV on the road but losing to UT Arlington and San Diego at home. Chris Gerlufsen is in his first season at the helm for the Dons after Todd Golden parlayed his success in San Fran into the head coaching job in Florida.
Two-time All-WCC and three-year starter Khalil Shabazz paces the team in scoring, while Washington State transfer Tyrell Roberts and former Nevada forward Zane Meeks also sit in double-figures. Texas A&M transfer Marcus Williams is also in the mix.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player’s average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs own a 1.14 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 12th in the nation. San Francisco has the 129th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.95. Gonzaga does well in all key stats, but in spacing where they are in the 22nd percentile, and rim & three rate, where they rank 240th in the country. Conversely, the Dons are in the top 60 in both those defensive metrics.
The Bulldogs own high-frequency numbers in cut, finishing at the rim, isolation, post-up, and transition shot types. They are in the top 150 in all those shot types but rank in the top 50 in post-up and isolation. Conversely, the Dons are in the top 150 in all those categories except in isolation and transition, rankings outside the top 240.
The San Francisco Dons have a 1.01 AdjOFF SQ, the 164th-best mark in the country. Gonzaga has posted a 0.95 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 51st in the country. The Dons are in the top 30 in spacing and rim and three rate. The Bulldogs are in the 67th percentile in defensive spacing and solid in defensive rim and three rate.
San Francisco is in the country’s top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot three-pointers, half-court, isolation, off-the-dribble three-pointers, off-screen, and pick & roll ball screen. In addition, San Fran ranks in the top 100 in isolation and screen sets. Gonzaga is in the bottom 100 in defending all those shot types.
Gonzaga vs. San Francisco Prediction
Gonzaga’s SQ PPP numbers could be better, but they also don’t consider the SOS. Their key metric numbers suggest they are a more balanced team. However, they need help to contain a solid San Fran offense in tonight’s matchup.
It should be a packed house for this late-night WCC matchup, and the Dons should turn up as they try to upset the front-runner in the conference. That said, they still need an answer for Timme, meaning they will need to put points on the board if they are to hang with the Bulldogs. So take the over and expect a shootout in this one.
Prediction: Over 156.5 (-110)
