But since then, it hasn’t quite gone according to the script for Islamabad.
The Taliban have been more assertive than ever, and refuse to be remote controlled. They haven’t cooperated with Islamabad’s demand of reining in the TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan)- a group that Pakistan considers its biggest threat to internal security.
The result- a sharp rise in terrorist attacks and related casualties since August 2021. The ‘Annual security report-2022’ published by Islamabad-based think tank Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) shows the provinces bordering Afghanistan have been the worst affected.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) alone saw over 30% of the 506 terror attacks in Pakistan 2022.
Fatalities from terror attacks also showed a similar trend, the report suggests. KP, Fata and Balochistan- all on the Afghan border- recorded the highest numbers, and also the sharpest rise from 2021 figures.
The CRSS report also names Daish (Islamic State Khorasan), and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), among other groups involved in terror attacks. But the TTP remains the primary challenge for the Pakistani establishment.
Taliban cold to reining in TTP
Ever since the return of Taliban in Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan has witnessed a tremendous spurt in terror attacks from TTP, such as suicide bombings, kidnapping and even mass killings. According to claims by TTP itself, nearly 1,000 people were killed and injured in attacks by the outfit in 2022.
The Taliban regime has resisted pressure from the Pakistani establishment to force the TTP to surrender.
A “peace deal” between TTP and the Pakistan government fell through in November. What followed, was a spell of absolute mayhem. December was the deadliest of the year in terms of violence and casualties.
A frustrated Islamabad is now planning to launch a major counter-offensive against the Afghanistan-based militants.
According to a report in South China Morning Post, Pakistan is likely to launch a major ground as well as air offensive to target the hideouts of TTP in Afghanistan, risking further deterioration of ties with the neighbouring country.
Taliban unrelenting on border issue
The unsettled border issue with Afghanistan, specially in the tribal areas, has been a bone of contention for Pakistan.
The Taliban do not accept the Durand Line, drawn by the British over a century ago, as a settled border. The recent flare ups in Chaman and elsewhere were triggered by Pakistan repairing a border fence.
The deaths of 9 people on the Pakistani side in cross-border firing in early December shows that the Taliban will not accept any unilateral measure on the issue.
‘Pakistan & Afghan Taliban are the same’
To help lift the Afghan Taliban into power was a massive strategic miscalculation by Pakistan, opines analyst Pervez Hoodbhoy in an article published in Dawn.
“For years, our security managers used state propaganda machinery to assure us that the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban are somehow different. That delusion stands fully exposed.
“Now, freshly victorious against a superpower, Kabul’s new rulers openly taunt Pakistan, dismissing possible Pakistani air or land incursions against TTP sanctuaries inside Afghanistan. Pakistan has created for itself yet another hostile neighbour and another nightmare,” Hoodbhoy further says.
2023 is unlikely to see terrorism abating in Pakistan, the CRSS report concludes, as the groups responsible continue to enjoy safe havens in Afghanistan.
