Though Skymet predicted “less than normal” rains in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh – the agri bowl of north India – during second half of the season (August-September), the situation at ‘below normal’ levels may not impact the farming operations much in these states as the entire region has to an extent drought proofed its agriculture through network of basic irrigation facilities and use of new drought-resistant varieties of seeds.
The weather forecaster also expects Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra will witness inadequate rains during the core monsoon months of July and August.
Over the country as a whole, it predicted that the upcoming monsoon to be ‘below normal’ to the tune of 94% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA) of nearly 87 cm rainfall for the four-month season and there is 40% probability for that.
Though the situation will be clearer only when the country’s national weather forecaster, India Meteorological Department (IMD), comes out with its monsoon forecast on Tuesday, the ‘below normal’ rainfall possibility may not impact the country’s overall farm output as reflected in 2017 and 2018 – the two consecutive years of ‘below normal’ rainfall.
The agriculture ministry farm production data shows that the country, despite reporting ‘below normal’ rainfall in 2017 and 2018, had produced 285 million tonnes of foodgrains during 2017-18 and 2018-19 each which was higher than the output in 2016-17 (275 million tonnes) — the year of ‘normal’ monsoon rainfall at 97% of the LPA.
Of course, farm output will be adversely affected if the monsoon slips to a deficient condition which has, however, only a 20% probability as per Skymet’s prediction. India had from 2019 to 2022 reported four consecutive years of ‘normal’ or ‘above normal’ rainfall.
Attributing the possibility of weaker monsoon to El Nino, Jatin Singh, managing director, Skymet, said, “Key oceanic and atmospheric variables are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. Likelihood of El Nino is increasing and its probability to become a dominant category during the monsoon is growing large. El Nino return may presage a weaker monsoon.”
Besides El Nino, there are other factors influencing monsoon. It includes the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which has the potential to steer monsoon and negate the ill effects of El Nino, when sufficiently strong.
“IOD is neutral now and is leaning to turn moderately positive at the start of monsoon. El Nino and IOD are likely to be ‘out of phase’ and may lead to extreme variability in the monthly rainfall distribution. Second half of the season is expected to be more aberrated,” said the Skymet.
