A third team has now been knocked out of the race for the playoffs this season. Punjab Kings’ 4 wicket loss vs Rajasthan Royals saw them join Delhi Capitals and Sunrisers Hyderabad as the third team to be eliminated.
So what does that do to the points table? It leaves 6 teams vying for 3 remaining playoff berths. While CSK and LSG are frontrunners to secure a top 4 berth, anything can happen in the final 4 matches left to play, with NRR likely to play a big role in deciding the fate of a few teams.
There still remain 16 possible combinations of results. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making it to the playoffs. As things stand, one team is guaranteed to finish on top, two others are almost certain to make the play-offs, another two are strong contenders, leaving RR and KKR to hope they can sneak through. The bottom three have already been knocked out.
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman does the number crunching to determine how the teams stand as of Saturday, May 20 morning, in 8 points:
1.GT are already guaranteed to top the table at the end of the group stage.
2. CSK’s chances of making it to the top four on points are also very good at 93.8% with only one combination of results placing them in fifth spot – LSG, MI and RCB winning their last games and CSK losing to DC. They could also miss out via NRR if they lose to DC, RCB beat GT, KKR beat LSG and MI beat SRH. That would leave CSK and LSG tied on 15 points and NRR, which is currently a little better for CSK, would decide the fourth spot.
3. Third placed LSG are in a very similar situation with a 93.8% chance of being among the top four in terms of points. The only way they can finish fifth on points is if they lose their last game and RCB, CSK and MI win theirs. They could be tied for fourth with CSK if both lose their final games and KKR, MI and RCB win theirs, leaving NRR to decide the final play-off spot.
4. Fourth-placed RCB’s chances of making the top four on points are now at 75%. They can finish fifth on points if they lose their last game against GT and MI win against SRH. They could lose out via NRR in multiple scenarios, including two in which they win their last game.
5. RR have moved up to fifth spot following Friday’s win, but they can only make the play-offs through the NRR route since the best they can achieve is tied fourth (25% chance). For that to happen, they have to hope SRH beat MI and GT beat RCB. The good news for them is that currently their NRR is better than two of the three teams they could be tied with – MI and KKR – and while RCB’s NRR is better now, a defeat could change that.
6. Sixth placed MI’s situation is a mirror image of RCB’s. They too have a 75% chance of being among the top four in terms of points but can finish fifth if they lose their last game to SRH and RCB beat GT. They are, however, worse placed in case of ties for fourth place because of a much lower NRR than those they could tie, with barring KKR.
7. Seventh placed KKR have a 12.5% chance of being among the top four on points and even that will involve a three-way or four-way tie. They will need to win their last match by a big margin to make up for their currently poor NRR. But they still need GT to beat RCB and SRH to beat MI.
8. Eighth placed PBKS have joined ninth and tenth placed SRH and DC as the teams to be out of the play-offs race.
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 16 possible combinations of results with 4 matches remaining. We assumed that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then looked at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gave us our probability number. We do not take net run rates or No Results (NR) into consideration because predicting those in advance is impossible.
So what does that do to the points table? It leaves 6 teams vying for 3 remaining playoff berths. While CSK and LSG are frontrunners to secure a top 4 berth, anything can happen in the final 4 matches left to play, with NRR likely to play a big role in deciding the fate of a few teams.
There still remain 16 possible combinations of results. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making it to the playoffs. As things stand, one team is guaranteed to finish on top, two others are almost certain to make the play-offs, another two are strong contenders, leaving RR and KKR to hope they can sneak through. The bottom three have already been knocked out.
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman does the number crunching to determine how the teams stand as of Saturday, May 20 morning, in 8 points:
1.GT are already guaranteed to top the table at the end of the group stage.
2. CSK’s chances of making it to the top four on points are also very good at 93.8% with only one combination of results placing them in fifth spot – LSG, MI and RCB winning their last games and CSK losing to DC. They could also miss out via NRR if they lose to DC, RCB beat GT, KKR beat LSG and MI beat SRH. That would leave CSK and LSG tied on 15 points and NRR, which is currently a little better for CSK, would decide the fourth spot.
3. Third placed LSG are in a very similar situation with a 93.8% chance of being among the top four in terms of points. The only way they can finish fifth on points is if they lose their last game and RCB, CSK and MI win theirs. They could be tied for fourth with CSK if both lose their final games and KKR, MI and RCB win theirs, leaving NRR to decide the final play-off spot.
4. Fourth-placed RCB’s chances of making the top four on points are now at 75%. They can finish fifth on points if they lose their last game against GT and MI win against SRH. They could lose out via NRR in multiple scenarios, including two in which they win their last game.
5. RR have moved up to fifth spot following Friday’s win, but they can only make the play-offs through the NRR route since the best they can achieve is tied fourth (25% chance). For that to happen, they have to hope SRH beat MI and GT beat RCB. The good news for them is that currently their NRR is better than two of the three teams they could be tied with – MI and KKR – and while RCB’s NRR is better now, a defeat could change that.
6. Sixth placed MI’s situation is a mirror image of RCB’s. They too have a 75% chance of being among the top four in terms of points but can finish fifth if they lose their last game to SRH and RCB beat GT. They are, however, worse placed in case of ties for fourth place because of a much lower NRR than those they could tie, with barring KKR.
7. Seventh placed KKR have a 12.5% chance of being among the top four on points and even that will involve a three-way or four-way tie. They will need to win their last match by a big margin to make up for their currently poor NRR. But they still need GT to beat RCB and SRH to beat MI.
8. Eighth placed PBKS have joined ninth and tenth placed SRH and DC as the teams to be out of the play-offs race.
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 16 possible combinations of results with 4 matches remaining. We assumed that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then looked at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gave us our probability number. We do not take net run rates or No Results (NR) into consideration because predicting those in advance is impossible.
