Monday’s vote will cap a high-pitched campaign led by PM Narendra Modi for BJP that saw his roadshows, rallies and rhetoric set to the tune of international classics like Queen’s “We’re the Champions” in the two music-mad states. He promised peace, development and economic growth.
Meghalaya Elections 2023: Political equation fractured for opposition, says CM Conrad Sangma
BJP may hope to corner enough seats to form governments in Meghalaya and Nagaland – both tribal states where most people are Christian – comfortably on its own strength, like it did in Assam, Manipur and Tripura. The BJP-led NDA has been in the governments of all the eight states in the northeast.
Nagaland CM Neiphiu Rio’s Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) leads a coalition government in the state with BJP that won 12 seats in the previous polls.
The BJP-NDPP alliance started off on a positive note with one of the 60 seats already in its kitty after the BJP candidate for Akuluto was declared a winner in absence of any other contestant.
BJP has pulled out of the National People’s Party-led Meghalaya Democratic Alliance government that was helmed by CM Conrad Sangma before this year’s polls to the 60-member assembly. In 2018, Congress won 21 seats, NP, BJP 2, and the rest went to regional parties and independents. But about 20 MLAs had switched sides.
The two states with over 34 lakh voters will also decide the fate of Congress and, particularly in Meghalaya, it is going to be an acid test for newcomer TMC.
The spotlight is on women candidates. In both states, women voters outnumber men, but are far behind in terms of women candidates and legislators. Among the 552 candidates spread over 118 constituencies in the two states, women’s representation is just 7%.
Nagaland has never elected a woman legislator and this time, four candidates – NDPP’s Hekhani Jakhalu and Salhoutuonuo, Congress’s Rosy Thompson and BJP’s Kahuli Sema – stand out.
In matrilineal Meghalaya, there are 36 women candidates this time. In 2018, three women among 32 got elected, four in 2013 and one in 2008.
The two states offer Congress an opportunity to find its lost hold, particularly in Meghalaya, where it finished as the single largest party in 2018 but faltered before a post-poll alliance stitched between six parties, including BJP, which had one just two seats.
Meghalaya voters have newcomer TMC as an additional choice this time. Election has been adjourned in Sohiong seat in the state after the death of one of the candidates.
Votes of both states will be counted on March 2 along with Tripura, which voted on February 16.
2023 leads to 2024
Congress’s plenary session in Raipur provided a clearer understanding of its likely approach to the 2024 Lok Sabha election. There’s no longer any ambiguity about its approach to forming alliances, especially for 2024. Congress implicitly acknowledged BJP’s pole position by observing a third front will benefit NDA. Anxiety about a third front should also be read as shorthand for ground realities in the political landscape.
Regional parties, particularly in south and east India, are often the dominant political force in states. To illustrate, in the 2019 LS election, all of Andhra Pradesh’s 25 seats went to regional parties. Moreover, no political party will voluntarily cede space. Plus, alliances at the national level are sometimes formed after the election. Regional parties tend to be flexible when it comes to post-poll alignments as protecting their state’s and party’s interest takes precedence over political ideologies. Therefore, looking for ideological affinity may not yield much. Winnability is prioritised in Indian politics, witness BJP’s willingness to embrace allies of all kinds.
Given this backdrop, alliance building will be influenced by nine assembly elections in 2023. In these nine elections, Congress and BJP go head-to-head in four states – Karnataka, Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh. The outcomes here will deeply influence Congress’s bargaining power. Even “like-minded” political parties may not be accommodating if they feel Congress is not electorally competitive in states. Yes, Congress needs to be part of an alliance in 2024, where every partner knows it has to play to its strengths. But unless 2023 assembly elections show Congress as a party that can defeat BJP, such an alliance will not accept Congress in the pole position. All the manoeuvrings of non-Congress opposition leaders will disappear if Congress does well this year – and that’s the big if.
